Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2468fb181ad1affadaad5b31ac66266749f46c5d9b970f550391f03b134b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…bc5abacked Yes | 35c | 2,862$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…6828backed No | 65c | 1,520$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe482…f4b4backed No | 65c | 1,342$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706d…1c5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,151$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,041$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 705.46$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 486$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 361.07$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 56c | 359.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0d0dbacked No | 72c | 355$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 38c | 344.67$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 41c | 325.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 321.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 45c | 300.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 287.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 286.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 45c | 266.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 49c | 262.79$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 43c | 251.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 226.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…f431backed Yes | 47c | 214.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 48c | 211.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 47c | 210$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3f…9a56backed Yes | 53c | 186.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 180.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 68c | 180.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 168.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 48c | 168.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 35c | 165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 26c | 157.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 27c | 154.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 65c | 153.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 36c | 146.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 45c | 145.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 131.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 126.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 121.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 26c | 110.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 51c | 105.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 59c | 103.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 51c | 99.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 44c | 98.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 69c | 97.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 36c | 96.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 47c | 96.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 55c | 92.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 45c | 89.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 55c | 82.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 51c | 81.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 64c | 78.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 61c | 77.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…0a7fbacked Yes | 65c | 76.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 36c | 74.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 47c | 73.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 36c | 73.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 70c | 71.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 56c | 71.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…5d70backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 37c | 53.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…42d0backed No | 53c | 51.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed Yes | 39c | 51.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 39c | 50.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 48.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 44c | 46.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 45.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 46c | 45.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 56c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes | 56c | 43.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 45c | 42.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 53c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes | 46c | 38.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 52c | 38.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked No | 79c | 37.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 50c | 36.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 35.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.