TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…bc5abacked Yes35c2,862$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de6…6828backed No65c1,520$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe482…f4b4backed No65c1,342$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x706d…1c5abacked Yes7c1,151$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes3c1,041$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6924010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No62c705.46$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7154143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes24c486$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.026,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c361.07$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.952,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes56c359.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.041,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x841d…0d0dbacked No72c355$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes38c344.67$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.739429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes41c325.33$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.797823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c321.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes45c300.19$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c287.52$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.011,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No58c286.95$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No45c266.88$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes49c262.79$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes43c251.86$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c226.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x229c…f431backed Yes47c214.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes48c211.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.165527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No47c210$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.41,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3f…9a56backed Yes53c186.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes11c180.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.916219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes68c180.35$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No54c168.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.721,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes48c168.49$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4618041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes35c165$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.753625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes26c157.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5916434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes27c154.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3425742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes65c153.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes66c152$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3217433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes36c146.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.744032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…30d1backed Yes45c145.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c131.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.098,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No53c126.52$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.983,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c121.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes26c110.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0735843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No51c105.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes59c103.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7134651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509f…d23abacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked Yes47c99.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes51c99.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes44c98.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed No69c97.06$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.29836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes36c96.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes47c96.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6860851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No55c92.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No32c90$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x402f…19a4backed Yes45c89.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No56c89.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.292,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No55c82.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.123658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes51c81.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.874833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes64c78.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x809c…4861backed No61c77.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.743342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2358…0a7fbacked Yes65c76.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c74.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0211835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes47c73.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes36c73.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No69c72.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.976674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03bb…cb41backed Yes46c72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.962030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No70c71.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.287576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No56c71.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.071782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa04d…5d70backed Yes28c64.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86aa…eb33backed Yes54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.34551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No50c59.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes44c58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.528551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes37c53.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd212…42d0backed No53c51.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8c…0387backed Yes39c51.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc627…5d3dbacked No67c51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes39c50.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1438…6d40backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+173.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No41c48.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked Yes62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes43c46.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes44c46.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1911044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes41c45.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1933839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes46c45.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No56c43.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes56c43.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.141838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf767…ebb1backed Yes45c42.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes39c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2623231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No42c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes46c41.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1911436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed Yes53c40.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.552259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60eb…4a56backed Yes57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes46c38.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac8…0837backed No52c38.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.412975.9%22 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b66…3907backed Yes43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.155339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55bd…9bfabacked No79c37.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.763033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+225.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No67c37.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.391,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes50c36.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c35.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.341,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.