Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac47d788f1bf8961ae960926bd79d50d67e1b850857a11091c2f0be2cd53b616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 2c | 3,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 9c | 448.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 316.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 292.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 29c | 264.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 196.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 185.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 179.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 70c | 172.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 167.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 159.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 66c | 136.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 132$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 129.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 122.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 120.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 111.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 71c | 106.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 102.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 90.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 75c | 87.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 87.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 81.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 80.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 80.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 79.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 48c | 71.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 69.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 29c | 65.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 37c | 63.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 32c | 61.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 41c | 61.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 34c | 59.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 27c | 56.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 43c | 53.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 51.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Yes | 32c | 46.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 39c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 72c | 44.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 42.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 35.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 33.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 30.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…9390backed Yes | 36c | 27.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 44c | 27.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked Yes | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 48c | 26.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…4a4cbacked No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 72c | 19.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 66c | 16.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 72c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.