Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a68b641adab57f3a354cb38341fbdef7cfa8fa8f2d31a20d6bee5ebfc181fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4e2…036cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,526$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…e5d9backed Yes | 32c | 2,443$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…8ddfbacked No | 68c | 1,302$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…07c0backed No | 68c | 1,243$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…7a07backed No | 68c | 1,224$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…47adbacked No | 68c | 1,200$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 848.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 33c | 727.03$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.27 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 32c | 499.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 43c | 499.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.95 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 32c | 499.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.21 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 6c | 494.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 71c | 487.86$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 59c | 420.43$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 64c | 409.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.63 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 72c | 402.43$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 369.1$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 30c | 366.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.69 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 73c | 333.83$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 327.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 313.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 308$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 53c | 296.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 265.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 36c | 251.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 244.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 9c | 240$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 52c | 232.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 211.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 41c | 207.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 45c | 197.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 196$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 195.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 191.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 191.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 22c | 186.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 185$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 184.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…9992backed No | 58c | 181.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 45c | 176.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 49c | 176.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 39c | 172.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 34c | 169.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 28c | 169.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 148.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 69c | 145.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 56c | 143.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 78c | 138.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…7c8ebacked Yes | 37c | 134.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 46c | 129.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 127.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 110.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 60c | 109.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 75c | 109.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 48c | 107.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 105.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 100.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 38c | 99.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 64c | 97.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 63c | 97.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 96.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 94.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed No | 54c | 94.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 37c | 94.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 27c | 92.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 54c | 90.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 44c | 90.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 56c | 89.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 87.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 86.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 63c | 85.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 83.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 82.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 65c | 80.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 34c | 78.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 73c | 78.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 25c | 75.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed No | 21c | 74.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1043…85e8backed Yes | 44c | 73.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…2aedbacked No | 63c | 73.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 63c | 71.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.