Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c27dc7e03e5edcc3196a33119865b15c4ac260806e477f3765cca35dfd735b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 4c | 5,766$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,736$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,327$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,266$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…e641backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,144$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 813.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 12c | 806.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 725.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 2c | 725.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 553.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 10c | 495.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 457.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 13c | 400.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 395.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 16c | 386.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 13c | 339.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 325.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 308$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 8c | 258.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes | 13c | 247.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 5c | 241.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 16c | 217.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…cd52backed Yes | 15c | 207.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 192$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 6c | 190.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 130.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 116.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 114.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…9b23backed Yes | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f0…259ebacked Yes | 13c | 108.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 106.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 16c | 106.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 36c | 100.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 16c | 98.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 94.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…97f3backed Yes | 33c | 90.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 18c | 84.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…aa6dbacked Yes | 15c | 71.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…69b8backed Yes | 21c | 63.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 23c | 44.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 27c | 42.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 68c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 74c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.