Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43a4003f7d86aa85bb43022c1315fc806e5de951092c64b182f87dff2bb91db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 41c | 1,977$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.01 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 75c | 671.95$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 670.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 12c | 663.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 67c | 595.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 43c | 566.9$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.73 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 74c | 520.49$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 40c | 511.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 474.89$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 23c | 414.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 392.58$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 367.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 312.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 308$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 66c | 306.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 285.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 30c | 279.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 274.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 264.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 235.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 14c | 217.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 76c | 194.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 24c | 192.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 192.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 192$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 26c | 189.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 29c | 188.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 53c | 187.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 35c | 178.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 18c | 167.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…5d70backed Yes | 36c | 167.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes | 20c | 156.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 138.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 129.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 26c | 127.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…2230backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 34c | 124.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 47c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…186cbacked Yes | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 43c | 115.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 42c | 108.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a993backed Yes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 76c | 105.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 102.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 101.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 29c | 99.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 99.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 98.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 35c | 93.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 92.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 61c | 89.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 85.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 82.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 60c | 78.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 51c | 78.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 66c | 75.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 73c | 68.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 66.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 22c | 64.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 63c | 63.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…e56abacked No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 58c | 51.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 35c | 50.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 71c | 50.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6745…3e52backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 32c | 49.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 47c | 48.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 45.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…9062backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 78c | 42.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.