Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef8b1732b3a65f4fec8eb1f92af7a30ee110456c07e26cbb03cd629ee8d32cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,546 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 374.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…9b3ebacked No | 80c | 341.4$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 50c | 201.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 8c | 156.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 22c | 135.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 21c | 94.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked No | 56c | 89.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 74.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 58.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 57.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 32c | 53.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 41.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 27c | 39.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…2a9dbacked No | 69c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…1da0backed Yes | 27c | 37.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 36.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 34.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…5bddbacked No | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.