Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca32fc72956e471a2734c037273cd4e40e0efaacd8f4803514e01516c37562d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 6c | 604.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 249.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 10c | 222.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 202.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 146.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 103.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 91.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 90.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 29c | 82.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 22c | 76.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 73.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 22c | 61.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 55.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 70c | 54.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 66c | 53.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 49.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 63c | 47.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 45.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 62c | 40.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 39.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 37.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 40c | 32.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed No | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…8688backed Yes | 54c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 27.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…190fbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.