Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a4167244115703e67fcee3cd2bfbcd23dbae7be86856ffebd6af81afbf0a8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 2c | 3,331$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 293.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 52c | 293.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 70c | 284.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 53c | 168.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 46c | 157.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 156.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 155.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 147.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 147.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 139.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…7511backed Yes | 75c | 129.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 50c | 126.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 126.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 126.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 36c | 123.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 39c | 121.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 116.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 23c | 115.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 52c | 109.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 44c | 106.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 48c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 97.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 36c | 93.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked Yes | 39c | 79.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 79.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 74c | 77.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 76.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 74.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 43c | 72.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 41c | 69.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 67.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked No | 21c | 67.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 47c | 67.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 57c | 64.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 62.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 45c | 62.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 60.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 22c | 59.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 57.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 54.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 27c | 54.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 37c | 52.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 50.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 33c | 49.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 48.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 44.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 58c | 41.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 39.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 60c | 39.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed Yes | 72c | 39.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 49c | 38.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 37.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 37.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 37c | 36.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 35.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 40c | 35.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 31.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 59c | 30.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 41c | 28.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 74c | 27.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 71c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 43c | 24.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 77c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…4939backed Yes | 78c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 13.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 13.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.