Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x573164a1e091962d4f151673a9e63af02a4540e72b0caf8683e0257cef7a4e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 719.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 61c | 436.13$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 265.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 12c | 221.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 217.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 211.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 204.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 191.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 174.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 161.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 157.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 141.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 140.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 139.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 128.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 31c | 116.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 109.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 69c | 108.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 100.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 38c | 97.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 95.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 46c | 95.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 18c | 95.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 28c | 92.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 86.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…f45cbacked Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 79.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 75.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 48c | 75.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 74.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 69.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 65.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 62.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes | 28c | 62.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 36c | 61.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 29c | 54.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 53.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 72c | 51.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 47.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 42.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 45c | 40.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 45c | 39.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 45c | 36.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 59c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 24.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.