Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5010aa8aa8067471c553f04720b34d9eefd9bbe3d721a2bcda1c9b37ffb16e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 355.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 46c | 251.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 190.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 49c | 138.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 54c | 121.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 120.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 106.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 60c | 99.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 92.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 65c | 89.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 68c | 71.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 57c | 67.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 66.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 64c | 61.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 19c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 55.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 51c | 55.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 46c | 54.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 47c | 54.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 56c | 51.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…acd1backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 48.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 47.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 46.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 47c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 47c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 52c | 36.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 35.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 33.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 38c | 32.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 54c | 31.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…f760backed Yes | 49c | 24.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 62c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 48c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 62c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.