TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,123,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,246,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,123,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes1c401,065$5,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,491.174216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c181,209$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.392920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed Yes2c135,090$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.34229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6a…e6f0backed Yes3c73,401$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c7…0e9bbacked Yes2c71,533$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c65,925$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.966291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1953…5170backed Yes0c53,941$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.31010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8500…3988backed Yes4c53,827$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c52,574$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.082560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c52,189$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.23634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes2c51,530$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.157020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked Yes3c46,774$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.99238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes3c46,219$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes3c35,368$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.4310933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d80…c953backed Yes4c35,000$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1b…72fabacked Yes1c33,843$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.3290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c32,886$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.252522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4a…5f43backed Yes2c26,639$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c23,030$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.33474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes3c22,995$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.648038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x535e…ccd9backed Yes1c21,876$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.711428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes2c20,781$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.61911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes3c15,284$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.961816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes2c15,096$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.842646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc772…9be7backed Yes5c14,861$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c14,389$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.86120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebfb…c274backed Yes2c13,749$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c13,460$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8240%0 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04a…2851backed Yes1c13,368$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d9…1ef4backed Yes2c12,392$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.12728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+260.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes1c12,299$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6212033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes1c12,060$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf817…d678backed Yes2c11,849$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.011118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+63.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c11,466$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.153042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa005…da58backed Yes0c10,995$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6fc…f9dabacked Yes0c10,463$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes3c10,076$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.536216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes2c10,056$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes1c10,038$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes4c10,027$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c10,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes2c9,018$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b34…294cbacked Yes1c8,980$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287c…0b0cbacked Yes2c8,769$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes2c8,478$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes3c8,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes6c7,962$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes3c7,919$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.912913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes2c7,782$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9214337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54f6…e8e6backed Yes3c7,534$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes3c7,500$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.048543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2076…a338backed Yes5c7,384$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.46616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+128.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c7,306$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.24486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c6,599$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.962792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes2c6,296$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c6,219$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.73865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c5,880$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.362003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7cc…1733backed Yes2c5,879$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c5,636$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.94717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c5,507$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c5,491$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.372416.7%4 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c5,438$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c5,385$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.462110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c5,374$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a2…510bbacked Yes0c5,225$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes3c5,044$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4680%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2670…fd0abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04a…046abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes2c4,978$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.396829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes3c4,900$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.136428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7983…bb28backed Yes10c4,749$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Yes2c4,645$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.981118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a2…6abebacked Yes2c4,563$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c4,446$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.92731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a7…02febacked Yes6c4,445$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa919…9bb4backed Yes1c4,360$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f86…fea9backed Yes4c4,333$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes2c4,319$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.51175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…e174backed Yes1c4,283$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes2c4,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes1c3,840$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes1c3,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.93941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a7f…6a3abacked Yes9c3,479$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6469…d07cbacked Yes2c3,455$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+281.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes6c3,354$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed Yes3c3,336$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.641414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes2c3,282$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes1c3,189$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c3,146$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.686524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes1c3,107$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3281…922bbacked Yes1c3,094$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+228.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c2,892$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e4…e12cbacked Yes4c2,813$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes2c2,681$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.993625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfebb…79bcbacked Yes1c2,585$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.