Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d5af8db22a0968bfc433f0aa4daf872320ff47589fb06e41f79a27865aecbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ae…2b4cbacked No | 0c | 4,717$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 17c | 1,059$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 374.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 366.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 354.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 4c | 333.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 320.82$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 5c | 264.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 27c | 260.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 247.01$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 230.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 76c | 220$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 207.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 71c | 162.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 75c | 158.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 46c | 154.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 135.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 40c | 123.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 119.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 41c | 116.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 65c | 109.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 80c | 100.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 28c | 99.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 42c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 52c | 84.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 74c | 84.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…b806backed Yes | 31c | 83.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…7f32backed Yes | 36c | 82.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 76.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 28c | 75.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 26c | 74.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 70.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 67.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 73c | 63.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 40c | 63.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 76c | 63.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 25c | 61.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 29c | 60.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Yes | 50c | 60.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…18bcbacked Yes | 36c | 59.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 64c | 54.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 39c | 51.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…a554backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…56dabacked Yes | 43c | 48.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed No | 75c | 46.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…8e02backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 42.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 41.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…1ee9backed Yes | 28c | 40.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…df9abacked Yes | 36c | 40.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f7…6e56backed No | 68c | 39.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…eeefbacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 38.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 75c | 37.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…bca4backed Yes | 53c | 37.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 35.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…2f01backed No | 75c | 34.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 34.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…e384backed Yes | 46c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 52c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…f775backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…6e48backed Yes | 36c | 28.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 75c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 78c | 26.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed No | 78c | 24.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 72c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 53c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed Yes | 64c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 64c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…a8fcbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.