Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03552ab830062a540fa7d214ddf1e5c23461dd3ac2a653764969325c5271abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,466 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 12c | 434.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 432.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 323.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 317.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 289.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 281.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 229.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 185.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 185.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 174.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 172.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 30c | 161$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 30c | 153.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 61c | 149.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 149.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 138.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 130.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…d525backed Yes | 39c | 107.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 98.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 86.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 40c | 74.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 72c | 69.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 54c | 68.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 64.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 35c | 64.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 64c | 59.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 46c | 59.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 19c | 54.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 78c | 54.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…e4bcbacked Yes | 37c | 54.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 40c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…7f32backed No | 76c | 52.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 51.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 52c | 51.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…56dabacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…bcf2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 42c | 49.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 21c | 48.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…75abbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…d958backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…b806backed No | 58c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 52c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 26.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 41c | 24.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.