Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45beeb00af4482289b84812b07f4dbb556c02be0d4434d0d12751615be4c7018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 649.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 78c | 413.03$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 233.59$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 26c | 227.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 23c | 220.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 214.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 209.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 14c | 191.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 174.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed Yes | 20c | 162.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 151.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 77c | 141.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 121.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 120.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 118.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 24c | 117.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f3debacked Yes | 10c | 114.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 110.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 95.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 17c | 95.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 27c | 93.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 90.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 88.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 25c | 82.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 20c | 75.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 72.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 22c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 28c | 70.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 17c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…75abbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.