Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808e8776d1f3d5a39b18211624b715977b8581e513cef2397ce8303203920c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,283$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,250$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.67 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 1,178$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.37 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 68c | 887.58$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.19 | 577 | 44.9%259 W · 318 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 652$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 639.28$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.66 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 595$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 471.89$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 6c | 382.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 379.68$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…36d4backed Yes | 64c | 319.55$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 315$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 31c | 296.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 4c | 294.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 80c | 280.3$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 251.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 213.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 28c | 209.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 205.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 21c | 168.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 154.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 130.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 127.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 127.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 50c | 123$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 1,093 | 29.6%324 W · 769 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 122.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes | 14c | 112.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 49c | 105.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 22c | 103.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 19c | 99.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 40c | 98.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 97.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…cd52backed Yes | 26c | 96.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 22c | 90.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 85.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…360dbacked Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 22c | 80.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 79.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 77.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 61c | 74.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 74.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 41c | 71.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 24c | 69.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed No | 78c | 64.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 80c | 59.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 58.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…a9ddbacked Yes | 45c | 56.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 32c | 55.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 52c | 45.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fd…e958backed No | 76c | 43.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 68c | 42.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 57c | 41.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 726 | 66.3%481 W · 245 L | +34.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 69c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 60c | 30.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 28.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 80c | 26.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 80c | 22.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…4cd8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.