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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes0c17,283$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes2c17,250$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.672,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes22c1,178$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3755422.4%124 W · 430 L-21.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No68c887.58$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1957744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes5c652$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3893134%317 W · 614 L+53.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes39c639.28$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.664,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c595$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.241312.3%51 W · 362 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c471.89$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes6c382.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.725842.2%109 W · 149 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c379.68$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.523,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db3…36d4backed Yes64c319.55$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes15c315$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.66,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c299.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes31c296.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4416738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe848…6041backed Yes4c294.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No80c280.3$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.766144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c251.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1912,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c213.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.952,28014.7%336 W · 1,944 L+51.5wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes28c209.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.68623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c205.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.931,84727.6%509 W · 1,338 L+24.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10032652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes21c168.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes58c154.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0557659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes31c149.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes23c130.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.891,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c127.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.467,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes22c127.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3936819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes50c123$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.271,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes24c122.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.881,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes14c112.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes49c105.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1127565.5%180 W · 95 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked Yes22c103.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.792528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes20c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3632044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0826828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed Yes19c99.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.989260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No40c98.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c97.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26b…cd52backed Yes26c96.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes22c90.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes18c85.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4426827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78e…360dbacked Yes19c85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes25c85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes22c80.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.12,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c79.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.617,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No78c77.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.127576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes61c74.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4310154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c74.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2957827.9%161 W · 417 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d97…66f8backed Yes41c71.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.254057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes24c69.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes18c69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes51c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.387540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a70…2831backed No78c64.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.15650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No80c59.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.964080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No56c58.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecab…a9ddbacked Yes45c56.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes32c55.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1825725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes21c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2934633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1573…36b3backed Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.422755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes21c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No78c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No52c45.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9451762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fd…e958backed No76c43.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No68c42.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7410264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8814559.3%86 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes57c41.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.052642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No70c35.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.172666.3%481 W · 245 L+34.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cef…959ebacked Yes30c33.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.172015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed No69c31.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6911044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes60c30.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8a28…7f61backed Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.58557.6%49 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes49c28.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd41f…bb32backed No80c26.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.433275%24 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No76c23.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5157232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xfa3a…f171backed No80c22.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.471968.4%13 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick75cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes53c21.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes48c21.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x246d…e1b2backed No77c15.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.596071.7%43 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b1…4cd8backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.