Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b27abefc7a1b886b90524829646d267d797b62d11138a17e7581ccb43342f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 1,002$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.33 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 57c | 593.18$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.37 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 2c | 591.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 503.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 10c | 477.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 24c | 418.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 4c | 366.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 356.47$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.21 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 46c | 344.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 323$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 64c | 312.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 308.05$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 278.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 46c | 217.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 143.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 70c | 109.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 33c | 100.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 95.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 93.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 87.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 86.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…6511backed No | 74c | 85.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 34c | 85.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 36c | 79.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 65c | 76.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 23c | 65.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 31c | 63.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…2104backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes | 30c | 53.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 76c | 53.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…a9ddbacked Yes | 65c | 53.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 20c | 52.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 48c | 49.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 47.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 54c | 46.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 54c | 45.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 39c | 45.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 79c | 44.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 37c | 40.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 38.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 67c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 43c | 36.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 46c | 34.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 41c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 48c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.