Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d74e5adb3a8930f6fe102eee285e241e2fadfe32f6642a7a35cfe2f872039bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,020$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.16 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 6c | 9,578$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.44 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 10c | 5,378$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.19 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 11c | 5,312$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.63 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 13c | 4,084$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.06 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 3,698$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.61 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 3,571$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.86 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes | 5c | 2,717$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,669$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 2,504$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.81 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 1,896$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 1,891$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 1,541$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 1,156$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,146$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 17c | 1,098$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,059$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,047$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 5c | 992.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 5c | 962.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 8c | 894.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 5c | 886.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 13c | 883.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 2c | 865.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 11c | 849.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 8c | 844.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 802$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Yes | 7c | 738.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 9c | 720.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 14c | 700$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 7c | 590$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 8c | 589.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 4c | 561.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 8c | 537.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 526.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 6c | 510$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 11c | 500.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 500.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 10c | 481.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 477.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 6c | 475.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…1488backed Yes | 6c | 429.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 5c | 418.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes | 8c | 418.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 12c | 389.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 17c | 387.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…50c4backed Yes | 13c | 371.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 7c | 370.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 5c | 369.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b90…b3fcbacked Yes | 25c | 366.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 4c | 341.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…2095backed Yes | 17c | 329.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 15c | 325.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 8c | 247.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 5c | 247.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 8c | 241.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…f16dbacked Yes | 6c | 239.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6e60backed Yes | 5c | 229.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 17c | 221.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 216.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 15c | 197.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 6c | 194.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc4…1403backed Yes | 7c | 193.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…c8c7backed Yes | 8c | 192.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed Yes | 8c | 186.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 6c | 180.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 14c | 177.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 14c | 174.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 10c | 157.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 157.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa884…7885backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 148.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 17c | 146.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 13c | 145.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Yes | 14c | 143.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 11c | 119.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 10c | 117.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 113.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +275.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e65cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…1887backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…23f1backed Yes | 17c | 61.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.