Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d73b99af192c433b599cc9a019ed476f8874ac3b2b5ffd9135dc993baa04702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,413 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 30c | 906.3$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.93 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 70c | 852.77$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.77 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 671.63$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 633.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 14c | 549.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 525.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 502.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 463.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 458.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…5d70backed Yes | 38c | 423.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 391$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 33c | 349.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 67c | 333.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 333.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 331.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 319.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 66c | 313$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.89 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 70c | 306.88$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 44c | 303.41$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 302.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 281.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 219.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…6db3backed Yes | 8c | 214.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 25c | 199.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2424…73d3backed Yes | 10c | 194.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 190.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 18c | 183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 26c | 175$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…55e8backed Yes | 8c | 173.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 170.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 40c | 170.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 66c | 167.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 165.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b18…810fbacked Yes | 12c | 162.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 161.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…efc9backed Yes | 12c | 156.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…f6f1backed Yes | 13c | 156.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 39c | 154.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…4a4cbacked Yes | 12c | 154.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 148.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 69c | 145.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 139.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…8bdcbacked Yes | 14c | 138.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…e2b4backed Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked Yes | 37c | 135.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…4c8abacked No | 67c | 134.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 131.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 128.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 67c | 121.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 37c | 120.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…1222backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 111.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 31c | 107$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 106.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 15c | 101.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 92.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 75c | 90.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…5374backed Yes | 25c | 89.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 70c | 88.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 84.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 36c | 83.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 25c | 81.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…cbe5backed Yes | 37c | 81.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 76.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 33c | 74.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 68c | 74.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 68c | 73.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 34c | 73.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 36c | 73.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 14c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 70.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…5728backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 64.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 63.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd070…ab19backed Yes | 32c | 62.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 59.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 58.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 57.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 28c | 56.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75e…757ebacked Yes | 36c | 56.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…4075backed Yes | 36c | 54.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…7a40backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 40c | 50.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.