Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6150a5beb96f413ceeaa8283615373154304f508018aa625b6c9ce27e3af60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,502$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.3 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 9c | 2,493$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 2,302$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,092$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 1,578$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 1,305$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,274$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…e641backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,186$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,021$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 10c | 899.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 807.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 720.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 9c | 693.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 504.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 12c | 412.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 13c | 399.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 4c | 391$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 14c | 379.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 6c | 350.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 7c | 329.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 304.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 270.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 270.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 19c | 265.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 261.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 6c | 257.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 20c | 199.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 13c | 190.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 180.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…2da7backed Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 15c | 172.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 8c | 165.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 28c | 165.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…a41bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 15c | 139.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 15c | 131.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 129.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 16c | 125.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 120.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 94.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 88.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 85.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…3df6backed Yes | 12c | 85.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d7…77e7backed Yes | 22c | 64.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 20c | 63.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 39.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…c08bbacked No | 78c | 31.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 80c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 78c | 13.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 79c | 12.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.