TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf882…bacfbacked Yes35c2,623$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf054…3e0bbacked Yes35c2,611$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d8…704ebacked No65c1,350$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c1,343$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.052,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…fa45backed No65c1,325$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ea…4222backed No65c1,286$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6f…153dbacked No65c1,273$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…e641backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No79c1,120$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes8c999.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes15c899.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes2c680$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Yes6c674.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.992339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes5c622.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6155919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c610.24$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes21c573.71$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5538840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No77c550.04$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes19c540.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9918041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c525.88$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…5475backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c500$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1274,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dca…87d0backed Yes4c499.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes8c499.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No79c482.41$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes8c449.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No65c449$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0754143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c425.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes14c391$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.161,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c370.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes19c349.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.816036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes10c332.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8424710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes15c327.05$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.637233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c316.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.962,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes19c296.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4959021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa04d…5d70backed Yes40c242.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No78c241.76$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf83…2da7backed Yes9c231.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes9c231.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.225725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c225.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.961,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes28c220.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.479429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No57c202.7$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c188.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes24c180$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6414338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes10c168.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes9c164.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.394311.6%5 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes23c160.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.321553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes34c148.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes35c148$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4416532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd216…044cbacked Yes17c147.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes11c141.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4729642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd1…05abbacked Yes35c138$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes13c131.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5425742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes27c129.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb058…852cbacked No64c129.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.22060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c129.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.291,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes21c121.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes20c119.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c112$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.562,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes25c111.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4625029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes37c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.710650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9186…8bdcbacked Yes11c105.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c101.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.063,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes41c100.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2518…8640backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No61c98.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed Yes37c95.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes27c94.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes32c92.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3057659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.782,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe399…aa44backed Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes34c89.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.891030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c85.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes29c83.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ca…5482backed Yes35c77.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8514617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes31c72.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.613625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked Yes22c70.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe848…6041backed Yes15c70.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387f…1222backed Yes19c69.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes29c68.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No75c68.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes23c68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.544736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes35c67.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7119531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeba…d32bbacked Yes38c65.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26b…cd52backed Yes34c64.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes33c61.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a92…d870backed Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1525…cd1abacked Yes37c58.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c56.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.663,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes39c56.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No63c55.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3966…bf35backed Yes31c51.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…bd90backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes30c49.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67c3…f6b0backed No65c49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.