Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf3c1a4873602f7f34b0b9619baf85a4bf6c845ab98772f9c74d708e1db4497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf882…bacfbacked Yes | 35c | 2,623$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…3e0bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,611$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…704ebacked No | 65c | 1,350$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,343$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…fa45backed No | 65c | 1,325$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…4222backed No | 65c | 1,286$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…153dbacked No | 65c | 1,273$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…e641backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 79c | 1,120$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.72 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 15c | 899.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 2c | 680$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 6c | 674.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 622.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 610.24$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 573.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 550.04$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 19c | 540.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 525.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 482.41$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 449.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 449$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 425.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 391$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 370.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 19c | 349.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 10c | 332.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 15c | 327.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 316.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 296.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…5d70backed Yes | 40c | 242.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 78c | 241.76$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…2da7backed Yes | 9c | 231.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 9c | 231.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 225.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 28c | 220.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 202.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 188.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 24c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 10c | 168.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 9c | 164.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes | 23c | 160.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 34c | 148.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 35c | 148$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked Yes | 17c | 147.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 11c | 141.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…05abbacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 13c | 131.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 129.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 64c | 129.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 21c | 121.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 119.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 112$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 111.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…8bdcbacked Yes | 11c | 105.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 101.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 41c | 100.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 98.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 37c | 95.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 94.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 92.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…aa44backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes | 34c | 89.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 85.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 29c | 83.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 35c | 77.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 31c | 72.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 22c | 70.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 15c | 70.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…1222backed Yes | 19c | 69.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 29c | 68.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 75c | 68.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 23c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 35c | 67.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeba…d32bbacked Yes | 38c | 65.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…cd52backed Yes | 34c | 64.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…cd1abacked Yes | 37c | 58.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 56.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 39c | 56.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 55.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…bf35backed Yes | 31c | 51.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…bd90backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 49.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…f6b0backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.