Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84cc4f481026554e5b5196ad6d47c1dfb064ddc3f657040c8b05c7bb7fbd9cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,089$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.24 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 9c | 4,003$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.76 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 8c | 3,768$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.59 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 2,326$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.39 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,864$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 2c | 1,786$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,428$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 11c | 1,270$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…e641backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 951.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 947.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 17c | 931.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 892.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 755.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 9c | 745$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 8c | 723.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 517.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 506.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 500.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 450.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 9c | 437.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 7c | 420.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 32c | 418.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 6c | 410.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 8c | 397.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 388.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 6c | 289.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 11c | 283.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 274.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 6c | 240.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 23c | 220.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 25c | 200.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 196.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 194.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 76c | 173.27$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 13c | 162.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 31c | 162.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 155.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 149.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 15c | 148$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 140.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 9c | 129.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d8…6ad4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 98.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…a41bbacked Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 12c | 90.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…6968backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 21c | 65.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 57.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 71c | 56.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…9b3bbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.