Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32640088701f113115f8120f4254a0c59c59fecd2dd5c97cffbb61f6ee219a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,126$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 777.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 641.27$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 469.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 461.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 9c | 458.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 427.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 412.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 391$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…d9b3backed Yes | 15c | 355.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 37c | 345.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 325.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 268.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 71c | 263.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 12c | 263.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 15c | 261.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 236.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 221.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 14c | 218.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 7c | 186.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 174.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 71c | 164.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 65c | 161.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 13c | 148.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 10c | 141.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 132.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 9c | 129.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…681bbacked Yes | 23c | 128.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…4075backed Yes | 12c | 108.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 14c | 103.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 63c | 101.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…55e3backed Yes | 13c | 97.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 21c | 82.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 79.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 64c | 75.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 69.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 74c | 67.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 79c | 63.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 59.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 73c | 58.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 63c | 55.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 52.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 20c | 51.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1123…76a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…0062backed Yes | 28c | 43.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 66c | 37.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked No | 64c | 28.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 78c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 67c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 63c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked No | 79c | 14.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.