Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9cb41d86c1c6fe6b33e3ce4f35136dd48684f5f75379a3568c8ac8d849874b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,014 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 4c | 13,358$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,779.49 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 10,194$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,917.69 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 5c | 6,123$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.52 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,775.38 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 1c | 4,913$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 15c | 4,026$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.91 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked No | 3c | 3,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 2,176$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.68 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 78c | 1,708$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 57c | 1,695$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 1,583$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed No | 32c | 1,578$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,523$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 79c | 1,469$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,436$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 78c | 1,309$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.59 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 1,232$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.33 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 1,194$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 45c | 1,162$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.27 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 1,125$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 79c | 1,060$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 26c | 912.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.49 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 66c | 890.73$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.19 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 4c | 812.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 788.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 13c | 764.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…4b45backed Yes | 55c | 747.64$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d340backed No | 72c | 726.32$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 25c | 660.39$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.19 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 4c | 654.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 5c | 645.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.67 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 53c | 618.05$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed No | 26c | 599.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 51c | 581.7$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 50c | 580$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.31 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 442.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 53c | 429.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 52c | 373.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed Yes | 61c | 358.09$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 49c | 350.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 21c | 347.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 5c | 325.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.77 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 319.44$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 315.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 11c | 279.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…6041backed Yes | 51c | 274.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 12c | 264.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 61c | 217.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2423…4137backed No | 53c | 208.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…2ddebacked Yes | 56c | 207.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 45c | 200.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 17c | 179.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb339…38a5backed No | 33c | 179.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 174.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…b2d5backed No | 49c | 168.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…cbe5backed No | 12c | 161.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 161.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 79c | 155.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…2230backed No | 53c | 153.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed No | 10c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 147.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 22c | 145.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 70c | 143.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…54a3backed No | 15c | 139.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 27c | 132.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 125.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…5120backed No | 16c | 119.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 48c | 118.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 78c | 100.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…f1d5backed No | 51c | 98.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 98.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…fd9ebacked Yes | 53c | 96.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 55c | 90.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…9b3bbacked Yes | 61c | 89.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 50c | 88.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65eabacked Yes | 51c | 86.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 49c | 85.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 53c | 84.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 83.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 43c | 81.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…5b98backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…a41bbacked Yes | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 23c | 75.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38c…fd95backed No | 19c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed Yes | 61c | 71.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…687abacked Yes | 55c | 71.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…6968backed No | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed No | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.