Champions League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837eadc841d8e9acd0d6e17b4daabacfca8bfb03fe355c1c65dc03948869651d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aarhus GFof KKS Lech Poznań, Aarhus GF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Aarhus GF | 3c | 7,660$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,435.38 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Aarhus GF | 3c | 7,650$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,458.09 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Aarhus GF | 2c | 7,618$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,451.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +341.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Aarhus GF | 12c | 4,354$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.42 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked KKS Lech Poznań | 78c | 3,794$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.95 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Aarhus GF | 4c | 2,955$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.43 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Aarhus GF | 3c | 2,010$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aarhus GF | 39c | 1,702$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.4 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Aarhus GF | 50c | 1,500$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aarhus GF | 5c | 1,412$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.08 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Aarhus GF | 2c | 1,355$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +496.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KKS Lech Poznań | 5c | 1,071$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 212 | 17%36 W · 176 L | -37.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Aarhus GF | 31c | 942.55$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Aarhus GF | 70c | 900.14$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.31 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Aarhus GF | 3c | 720$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d2…208dbacked Aarhus GF | 5c | 717$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aarhus GF | 54c | 649.84$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed KKS Lech Poznań | 12c | 612.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Aarhus GF | 3c | 605$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed KKS Lech Poznań | 25c | 551.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Aarhus GF | 76c | 482.48$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 52c | 480.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Aarhus GF | 5c | 470.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aarhus GF | 49c | 432.89$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.14 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 390.9$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Aarhus GF | 52c | 388.56$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.18 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed KKS Lech Poznań | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…6116backed Aarhus GF | 4c | 264.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +562%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed KKS Lech Poznań | 57c | 250.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed KKS Lech Poznań | 54c | 250.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed KKS Lech Poznań | 14c | 233$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 222.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…7e90backed KKS Lech Poznań | 50c | 206.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Aarhus GF | 24c | 201.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Aarhus GF | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Aarhus GF | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 70c | 186$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Aarhus GF | 48c | 184.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed KKS Lech Poznań | 41c | 179.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 170.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked KKS Lech Poznań | 50c | 166.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…db0cbacked Aarhus GF | 35c | 148.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…2c2fbacked Aarhus GF | 52c | 133.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…ddf1backed KKS Lech Poznań | 76c | 115$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…4b22backed KKS Lech Poznań | 60c | 81.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…b59cbacked Aarhus GF | 49c | 78.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed KKS Lech Poznań | 56c | 75.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Aarhus GF | 50c | 68.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735e…8b68backed Aarhus GF | 48c | 61.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Aarhus GF | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 67c | 55.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Aarhus GF | 51c | 49.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…5835backed Aarhus GF | 50c | 49.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Aarhus GF | 45c | 44.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Aarhus GF | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed KKS Lech Poznań | 78c | 38.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed KKS Lech Poznań | 53c | 31.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Aarhus GF | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…88eabacked KKS Lech Poznań | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…6b57backed KKS Lech Poznań | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Team to Advancethis page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.