Champions League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa26d12c8e6d523409717df17275da933cb9364f40b857b01a2a6159aa30d5796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 27c | 8,113$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.07 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 3,554$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.68 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 66c | 3,314$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.95 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 58c | 1,465$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.21 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 1,312$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.32 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 993.55$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.75 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 393.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 58c | 360$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Over | 73c | 256.41$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 72c | 190.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Under | 27c | 181.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…08b6backed Under | 15c | 130.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 77c | 130.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 286 | 51%146 W · 140 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 80c | 123.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…710fbacked Over | 61c | 122.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Under | 23c | 118.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 42c | 115.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 23c | 108.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 24c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 59c | 98.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 97.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 426 | 47.9%204 W · 222 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 69c | 87.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 23c | 61.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Over | 65c | 57.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 59c | 52.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 42c | 36.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 42c | 34.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…db88backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 26.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 64c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Over | 55c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…f13cbacked Over | 71c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…b4f7backed Over | 65c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Team to AdvanceAarhus GF won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.