Champions League · resolved market
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41a7c7d950d55d80633ebcdcbc938de63dd23fa193bfde9292eeb9676270c24c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aarhus GFof KKS Lech Poznań, Aarhus GF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed KKS Lech Poznań | 14c | 2,583$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.2 | 450 | 42%189 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aarhus GF | 69c | 1,397$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.06 | 313 | 42.5%133 W · 180 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed KKS Lech Poznań | 16c | 1,164$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.18 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Aarhus GF | 69c | 1,054$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.88 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Aarhus GF | 69c | 1,044$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.54 | 329 | 44.7%147 W · 182 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed KKS Lech Poznań | 31c | 725.27$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 543$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Aarhus GF | 69c | 390$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Aarhus GF | 69c | 365$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 313$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7391…5375backed Aarhus GF | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 31c | 256$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 286 | 51%146 W · 140 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aarhus GF | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 226.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aarhus GF | 66c | 174.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 116.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -22.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 109.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +17.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Aarhus GF | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad1…023cbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed KKS Lech Poznań | 34c | 55.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 45.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Aarhus GF | 78c | 45.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed KKS Lech Poznań | 30c | 45.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…f5c0backed Aarhus GF | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa13…9095backed KKS Lech Poznań | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aarhus GF | 65c | 38.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 346 | 42.2%146 W · 200 L | -15.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Aarhus GF | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Aarhus GF | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Aarhus GF | 73c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Aarhus GF | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 80cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Team to AdvanceAarhus GF won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.