KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x649f8195ef3a5c82e44b852a498eab239ec1cec044446f82c20648a4c2bfec6c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,332 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over	27c	4,402$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,201.7	467	41.5%194 W · 273 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	72c	3,562$2,571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$991.18	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under	51c	3,242$1,646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,595.71	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+6.3wins	+0.11per pick	38cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	25c	2,605$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.21	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed9f…debabacked Under	78c	2,000$1,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	37c	1,616$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.7	723	35.5%257 W · 466 L	-28.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde39…2fa1backed Over	26c	1,491$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.59	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Over	18c	1,467$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.71	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Over	24c	1,435$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.75	75	40%30 W · 45 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Over	58c	1,014$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.35	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…8620backed Under	71c	974.32$693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.51	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+79.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over	2c	889.44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	59	22%13 W · 46 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under	55c	606.55$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.17	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over	32c	599.98$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Under	73c	410.96$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	71cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	68c	402.84$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.94	73	45.2%33 W · 40 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eef…83aabacked Over	41c	400$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	45c	395$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.77	601	36.9%222 W · 379 L	-28.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9618…77e6backed Over	49c	393.51$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.51	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over	77c	392.6$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.7	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	73cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	23c	388$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.24	209	47.8%100 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f45…5390backed Over	32c	312.5$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under	72c	295$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.32	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	4c	293.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	440	33.9%149 W · 291 L	-12.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	73c	271.39$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.42	170	58.8%100 W · 70 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	73c	270.83$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.04	308	56.8%175 W · 133 L	+11.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Under	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa518…47e6backed Under	73c	246.09$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under	67c	202.74$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.89	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bf…b8e1backed Under	67c	201.45$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.48	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+188.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f8a…01cdbacked Over	29c	193.48$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Under	57c	175.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.43	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Under	64c	156.96$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.96	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	14c	151.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.53	212	17%36 W · 176 L	-37.2wins	-0.18per pick	35cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	33-0.16 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	53c	148$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.56	92	46.7%43 W · 49 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under	72c	144.36$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.17	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over	29c	140.86$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	13c	140.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	174	43.7%76 W · 98 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea8…b821backed Under	73c	136.98$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.98	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c27…54f2backed Over	38c	131.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under	61c	126$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.78	100	51%51 W · 49 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	24c	120$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.2	55	30.9%17 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	62c	117.19$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.38	166	51.2%85 W · 81 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under	65c	115.38$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.38	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	50c	114$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.63	245	45.3%111 W · 134 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	39c	104.66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.76	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	37c	100.73$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.27	78	42.3%33 W · 45 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under	72c	98$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.64	242	52.5%127 W · 115 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	36c	89.57$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.69	144	54.9%79 W · 65 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	59c	89$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.49	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	62c	88.13$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.49	446	47.3%211 W · 235 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over	25c	82.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	66cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked Under	65c	76.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	64c	73.49$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.52	299	49.5%148 W · 151 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	34c	68.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	607	48.4%294 W · 313 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under	73c	65.64$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.99	159	54.7%87 W · 72 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under	64c	65.32$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	107	43.9%47 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under	70c	58.17$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	143	53.8%77 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	63c	50.98$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	650	50.2%326 W · 324 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa560…767dbacked Under	67c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	73c	44.98$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	135	67.4%91 W · 44 L	+9.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Under	72c	40.68$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	77cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	42c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	-9.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc69a…e9f7backed Over	52c	36.54$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Over	57c	35.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over	30c	34.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Under	78c	32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.04	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9786…1e9abacked Over	46c	31.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38ce…4b22backed Over	43c	30.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	47c	29.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	274	50.7%139 W · 135 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Under	55c	26.14$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	72	50%36 W · 36 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	62c	25.01$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.49	146	45.9%67 W · 79 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Under	63c	23.81$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.81	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Under	64c	21.32$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.69	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Under	80c	12.52$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	19	89.5%17 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	80cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5this page
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5Under won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Under won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: Team to AdvanceAarhus GF won
Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)Aarhus GF won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

KKS Lech Poznań vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event