Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb82bb8ad79abdbd2aacacb321d13bb36f03535b64276f4606ed0ef257710e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 75,717$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 22,607$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.12 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,844$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 4c | 14,698$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.15 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,435$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,530$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 1c | 11,111$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 9,546$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 2c | 8,487$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 7,949$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 1c | 7,760$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 6,998$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 6,680$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed Yes | 2c | 3,653$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,631$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 3,207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…30a2backed Yes | 0c | 2,701$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 2,516$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,058$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,023$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…e9f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,996$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,904$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 2c | 1,549$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 6c | 1,488$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,329$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,143$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 15c | 1,110$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.35 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,079$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,008$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 14c | 999.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Yes | 2c | 985.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…5db4backed Yes | 7c | 955.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 2c | 827.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 799.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 3c | 792.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 727.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 4c | 725.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 6c | 710.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 698.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 3c | 676.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 671.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 7c | 669.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 2c | 616.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 605.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 563.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 556.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 2c | 549.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…bfb2backed Yes | 16c | 538.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 11c | 412.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 14c | 366.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…9127backed Yes | 5c | 244.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…3691backed Yes | 15c | 241.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 203.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 10c | 194.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 188.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 15c | 99.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 21c | 96.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…612dbacked Yes | 21c | 87.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…f29ebacked Yes | 16c | 85.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.