Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd2fdce6b26330641f2a66aeb830099efe0a1210c72c0da3f215354682193b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 2c | 21,881$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…46c8backed Yes | 5c | 9,413$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.47 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 8,892$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 1c | 8,175$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…4c9bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,714$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…2ea2backed Yes | 3c | 5,709$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Yes | 1c | 4,428$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Yes | 1c | 4,158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab54…da9fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,891$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…0c26backed Yes | 1c | 3,132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,971$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 0c | 2,850$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 2,751$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 1c | 2,220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…8451backed Yes | 1c | 1,891$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…e194backed Yes | 6c | 1,854$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a52abacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 6c | 1,317$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,295$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 3c | 1,155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,117$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,079$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,035$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 951.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a4f9backed Yes | 7c | 664.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f9…c5a7backed Yes | 4c | 650.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 2c | 563.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c7…6afabacked Yes | 3c | 531.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…147abacked Yes | 3c | 522.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…f141backed Yes | 2c | 506.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 8c | 461.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…03a0backed Yes | 12c | 383.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…1f3dbacked Yes | 6c | 376.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…2a63backed Yes | 6c | 295.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked Yes | 8c | 287.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 5c | 237$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 8c | 179.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…5090backed Yes | 6c | 167.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 7c | 163.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 8c | 160.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…7fcabacked Yes | 11c | 131.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…a567backed Yes | 14c | 100.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3706…9462backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 11c | 98.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.