TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rangersof Penguins, Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,593,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,668,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,593,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Rangers48c377,905$180,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197,731.3119848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Rangers48c220,000$105,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins52c129,924$67,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,483.551,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Rangers49c83,979$40,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,037.661,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Penguins52c70,000$36,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,40036748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Penguins52c35,552$18,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,48756152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Penguins52c32,692$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rangers39c30,218$11,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,344.4638748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Penguins53c29,626$15,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,554.4948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Penguins55c27,372$15,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,092.4543456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Penguins53c22,000$11,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,659.9816656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Penguins53c21,300$11,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,28938844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins47c20,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Penguins52c18,888$9,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,821.7521850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Penguins55c18,757$10,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3251,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins53c18,198$9,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,635.51,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Rangers45c17,710$7,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,740.5167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Penguins53c12,748$6,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,787.926657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Penguins53c12,176$6,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,453.510145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins53c11,398$6,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,069.7161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Rangers53c10,871$5,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,091.5812835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Penguins56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Penguins54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.933661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Rangers44c9,501$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,320.483652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Penguins55c9,091$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Rangers47c7,205$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.962025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf52b…905bbacked Rangers51c6,918$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,384.191266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rangers45c6,561$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.411,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Penguins53c6,415$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rangers47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.9440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Penguins52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Rangers48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.9919051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Penguins53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.9611553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Penguins53c5,859$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.751,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Penguins64c5,809$3,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.851,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Penguins70c5,602$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.0520651%105 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Rangers44c5,370$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,007.218641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Penguins56c5,069$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,83385250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Rangers48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Penguins52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Rangers44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9929146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Penguins53c4,831$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.4352050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa076…2641backed Rangers44c4,521$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Penguins52c4,488$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.7622747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rangers46c4,092$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.6879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Penguins53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Penguins53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.985848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins55c3,878$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.862,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Rangers47c3,800$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0144365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd1…e646backed Penguins56c3,600$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2102…d0b9backed Rangers44c3,600$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Penguins74c3,463$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.3457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Rangers44c3,320$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.451957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Rangers47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.4931550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Penguins47c3,190$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.244067.5%27 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Penguins52c3,133$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.9317057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Penguins56c3,114$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.1786852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Penguins53c3,084$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.6660337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Rangers32c2,934$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.523,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Penguins53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Penguins54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Rangers45c2,743$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.661668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rangers47c2,633$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.691945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Penguins69c2,500$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7255735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rangers33c2,479$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.0739344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Penguins55c2,452$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.7221555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Penguins52c2,321$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Penguins61c2,311$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.7130259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Penguins55c2,114$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.7486549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Rangers48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Penguins48c1,909$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.0338738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Penguins54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Penguins51c1,777$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.0563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Penguins57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Penguins69c1,747$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.091,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Penguins60c1,709$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6834538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Rangers47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90161959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penguins52c1,635$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1c…21e0backed Rangers45c1,625$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc917…7ff9backed Penguins56c1,605$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5c…f0dbbacked Penguins56c1,591$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Rangers29c1,579$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.859258.7%54 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Rangers11c1,501$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.261,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bc…b122backed Rangers45c1,493$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins74c1,471$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.5489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1632…cb68backed Rangers45c1,420$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7812748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…6a0ebacked Rangers45c1,382$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x63dd…977ebacked Penguins56c1,301$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x619b…c376backed Rangers45c1,291$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd814…f34fbacked Penguins56c1,286$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Rangers45c1,216$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a8…a5a7backed Rangers49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…aae6backed Penguins52c1,180$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f1…2ea8backed Penguins52c1,170$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…a1d0backed Penguins55c1,150$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b9…cfc1backed Rangers49c1,150$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Penguins52c1,134$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.351,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Rangers44c1,130$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.810158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Rangers44c1,110$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Rangers45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60513053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.