NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8b0645e86a53fc800449744fb5be0caf785f1e8fcef901e4382ac93325508c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 51c | 20,989$10,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,248.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,700 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 55c | 7,296$4,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,012.55 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 45c | 5,184$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.44 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 45c | 1,756$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.8 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 653.35$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 55c | 458.96$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 415.55$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.77 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 49c | 400$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 189$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Over | 56c | 178.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 149.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 36c | 140.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 129.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 117.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Over | 56c | 106.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff75…b615backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Over | 45c | 56.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 36.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 55c | 35.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. RangersRangers won
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Rangers won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.