NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x326b8645840f04304f8540ba9b9be6483bca5b9e0ef061a466b15568f8ccfc49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Penguins, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,400 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Rangers | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,400 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins | 30c | 1,588$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.26 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Rangers | 61c | 900$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Rangers | 67c | 846.5$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.94 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Rangers | 70c | 626.59$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Penguins | 39c | 594$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…8911backed Penguins | 32c | 459$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Penguins | 30c | 389.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…3cf1backed Penguins | 32c | 328$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Penguins | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Rangers | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…6178backed Rangers | 68c | 285$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…a8debacked Rangers | 68c | 264$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…e63ebacked Rangers | 68c | 238$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Penguins | 30c | 168.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Penguins | 50c | 163.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rangers | 68c | 157.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Rangers | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 39c | 128.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Penguins | 33c | 120.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rangers | 70c | 113.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 35c | 103.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Rangers | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 40c | 97.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Rangers | 71c | 95.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Rangers | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rangers | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Rangers | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Penguins | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Rangers | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Rangers | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Rangers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins | 45c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Penguins | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Rangers | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Rangers | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Rangers | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Rangers | 68c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Rangers | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Rangers | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rangers | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. RangersRangers won
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.