Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14254b180c068b88cfac4bfbf34de1265ba4b16fa376e16ce031419ff8e8227f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,204$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.08 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 5c | 6,743$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.13 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 5,690$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 3c | 4,821$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,073$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.49 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 2,948$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 61c | 2,404$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.54 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 9c | 2,380$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,363$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,299$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 2,191$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.47 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,915$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,848$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 1,741$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 32c | 1,700$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.3 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 5c | 1,670$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed Yes | 59c | 1,633$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.48 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 49c | 1,584$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.29 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,474$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 20c | 1,383$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 1,361$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 1,302$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 11c | 1,268$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…c0cebacked No | 80c | 1,199$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 52c | 1,171$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.61 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 1,160$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 1,061$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.11 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 1,035$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,001$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.89 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.7 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 10c | 812.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 11c | 805.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 803.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed Yes | 4c | 763.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 28c | 754.97$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.58 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 732.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 690.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…e7b4backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 588.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 6c | 545$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 11c | 530$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 520.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 25c | 519.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 517.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 17c | 509.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 69c | 472.81$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 435.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 48c | 408.07$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 39c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 46c | 330$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 19c | 307.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 60c | 294.35$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 271$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 260.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 257.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 26c | 250.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 246$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 243.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 7c | 240.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 9c | 230.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 227.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 213.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 47c | 210.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 47c | 210.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 46c | 197.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 196.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 11c | 179.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 7c | 165.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 165$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 48c | 162.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 16c | 158.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 10c | 146.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 10c | 135.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…0b46backed Yes | 8c | 134.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…bae7backed No | 80c | 110.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…ce73backed Yes | 50c | 101.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.