Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e79d5b083dfcbfd1aee51316491fc41b044ae6cfc112795f3550d722ecbfe2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2535…4278backed No | 0c | 22,534$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 1c | 6,628$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 4,650$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed No | 8c | 4,200$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.2 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 21c | 3,440$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.71 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 8c | 3,241$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.74 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 14c | 3,220$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.28 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 69c | 3,000$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.49 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked No | 28c | 2,750$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.5 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed No | 36c | 2,726$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.55 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 9c | 1,966$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.35 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 16c | 1,933$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 13c | 1,898$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed Yes | 23c | 1,804$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.63 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked No | 5c | 1,700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 13c | 1,539$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 4c | 1,520$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 1,501$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.24 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 6c | 1,483$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 1,235$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.3 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 11c | 1,192$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 42c | 1,186$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.11 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 13c | 1,115$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 12c | 1,071$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 4c | 1,050$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 1,031$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.95 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 18c | 1,019$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 69c | 1,012$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 40c | 999.98$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.36 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed No | 3c | 999.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed Yes | 18c | 979.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 33c | 979.11$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.51 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 8c | 932.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 904.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.45 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 29c | 901.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 860.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 29c | 800$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.61 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 11c | 794.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed No | 24c | 793.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 67c | 720.34$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 10c | 649.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 50c | 627.7$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.57 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 24c | 599.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.46 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 578.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 40c | 563.06$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.36 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 17c | 537.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 24c | 514.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.65 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 17c | 468.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.04 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…07c0backed No | 48c | 450$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 73c | 423.83$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 34c | 414.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 10c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 47c | 399.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 71c | 375$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 22c | 369.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.67 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 355.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…47dcbacked No | 42c | 350$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 344.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 38c | 341.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed No | 4c | 301.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed No | 17c | 296$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 48c | 275.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 16c | 271.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.43 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 7c | 269.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6940…b1e3backed Yes | 8c | 253.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +717.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 41c | 241.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.62 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 73c | 239.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 35c | 215.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 209.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.96 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 80c | 202.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…a8cebacked Yes | 59c | 202.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 189.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 7c | 181.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 55c | 174.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 23c | 167$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 11c | 144$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed No | 68c | 143.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 41c | 142.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 9c | 136$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 60c | 134.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 11c | 132.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…3af0backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked No | 62c | 129.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 40c | 129.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…796cbacked Yes | 10c | 123.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 78c | 122.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 28c | 122.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…b2c7backed Yes | 68c | 120.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 118.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 39c | 105.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes | 74c | 105.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.