Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb84150aff6689987885f010df367dd9c1b06aa760f1410041b4611de969ab97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 5,299$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 5,274$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,725$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,361$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,879$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,739$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 2,374$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,272$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,903$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 36c | 1,550$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.42 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 9c | 1,405$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,344$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 32c | 1,200$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,024$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 9c | 890.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 2c | 887.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 8c | 686.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…ba7bbacked Yes | 35c | 571.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed Yes | 30c | 460$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 457.8$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 30c | 323.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 244.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 65c | 235.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 234.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 7c | 200.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…8318backed Yes | 9c | 180.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…7be2backed Yes | 9c | 175.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 35c | 166$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 76c | 105.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…ce73backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 38c | 48.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 46.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 63c | 44.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 39.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e65cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17c…0c29backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274d…134dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…0e7ebacked No | 74c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ae81backed No | 71c | 24.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked No | 78c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed No | 77c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed No | 79c | 19.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.