Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a1ec4321b2a79e1fbe79011f8d844d1490d0861a566ed9eb5b31a54fa41867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 6,224$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,093$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 2,296$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 6c | 1,790$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 6c | 1,504$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,412$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 865.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 771.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 7c | 690.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 4c | 420.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 4c | 407.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…3653backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 209.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 7c | 198.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…fd29backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.