TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,433 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes7c2,772$187 inLost-$186.738224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes6c2,564$144 inLost-$1441414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,229$46 inLost-$46.151432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,217$15 inLost-$14.958510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c878.12$31 inLost-$31.01432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes13c798$104 inLost-$103.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes15c777$117 inLost-$116.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x118e…919ebacked Yes14c759.63$104 inLost-$104.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c519.86$28 inLost-$28.221302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes10c478.01$50 inLost-$502429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes12c351.61$42 inLost-$42.194825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c342.62$12 inLost-$11.64128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes15c297$45 inLost-$44.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac7…4524backed Yes8c217.89$18 inLost-$17.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c180.72$14 inLost-$14.4626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed Yes12c158.73$19 inLost-$19.051844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$121625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0674…2034backed Yes20c50.5$10 inLost-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.