TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,459 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,679$19 inLost-$18.95327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes7c2,484$176 inLost-$175.818224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb49…c150backed Yes11c183.97$20 inLost-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes14c154.64$22 inLost-$21.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes15c136.1$20 inLost-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes12c124.66$15 inLost-$151625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost-$15.1229416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$122871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes14c72.65$10 inLost-$10.176437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed No80c22.36$18 inWon+$4.471844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.