Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca616c49b67a19911755080e0e06fecfd0b716b1eaa8350a93232ee9669ffa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…37bfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 38c | 3,454$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.66 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 8c | 3,429$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 65c | 2,645$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…3a8dbacked No | 1c | 2,016$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.94 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 6c | 1,512$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,430$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.85 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 927.05$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 703.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.1 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 628.34$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…bc1cbacked No | 2c | 514.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 80c | 470$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 52c | 422.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.87 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 76c | 405.1$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 48c | 359.27$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 73c | 326.92$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 79c | 314.3$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 11c | 313.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…32d1backed Yes | 14c | 274.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 246.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 49c | 208.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 194.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed No | 17c | 169.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…75abbacked No | 25c | 161.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…feadbacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 155.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 12c | 142.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 56c | 125.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 18c | 118.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 56c | 109.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 23c | 84.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 79c | 84.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…834cbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 59.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 68c | 54.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab45…fee3backed Yes | 29c | 45.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 39.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 41c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2e…e331backed No | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…b9f9backed No | 75c | 32.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…8704backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…43abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9dafbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.