Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45e77d0be3e075b6c117eebe9312da6469b44efb6f85a263573e70191d1623f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 64c | 2,316$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…32d1backed No | 38c | 1,202$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 877$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 69c | 723.27$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.71 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 11c | 611.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 600.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Yes | 79c | 440.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 393.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 16c | 371.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 73c | 363.07$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 352.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 8c | 315.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 17c | 303.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked No | 39c | 258.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 38c | 223.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 78c | 216.09$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 204$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed Yes | 65c | 170$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 133.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 117.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 18c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 71.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 18c | 61.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 72c | 58.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 19c | 56.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…dc44backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 75c | 48.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 44.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed No | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…5996backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…c93abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…fda3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b5…f65fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.