TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes0c53,883$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.985628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No51c8,383$4,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.981240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,742$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.261,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No31c4,211$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.421,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c3,605$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.96714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes36c3,169$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.971,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes7c2,665$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.134245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked No78c2,460$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.662060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b8…cf16backed No74c2,127$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.271020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes39c1,493$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.373716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes2c1,263$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.255937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No41c1,194$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.3935151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No72c1,033$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.784057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No46c939.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.592540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e37…1fecbacked Yes54c926.48$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No68c900$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.622688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No51c843.13$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1760229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes41c804.26$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.269324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No42c800$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.765100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed No53c723.25$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.933915.4%6 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed No10c700$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4397…5a14backed Yes75c600$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes58c590$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.511030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae2…b101backed Yes69c590$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No46c530.03$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.035850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x795d…bdf8backed No20c499.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c439$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8186338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No57c427$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8848234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes53c420.48$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.11414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No49c400$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20626237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes15c399.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…1ac1backed No57c393$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes35c335.24$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.07911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No15c330.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No49c318$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.246141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c305.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.454168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf1…1ca3backed No34c298.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a9…25d5backed No30c285.46$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c284.95$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6717049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes13c283.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5980%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No58c279.14$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.2956548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe744…f96ebacked Yes45c268.89$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c268.16$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9251927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No16c251.94$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.618853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c4d…bf6fbacked Yes61c250.34$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02aa…ed9fbacked Yes72c246.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes63c244.53$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.845639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No30c233.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.571241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked No40c207.92$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.156643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes10c206.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.644418.2%8 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+128.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3b9…0371backed Yes38c204$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes54c201.97$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.272030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+52.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc2…f0b4backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x708c…b1a2backed No77c189.73$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No44c189.36$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.994465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a7…c0debacked Yes15c182.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+252.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a77…4002backed No46c162.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…5a97backed Yes62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No19c159.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c155.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1322129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No48c153.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0299038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724a…e2c0backed Yes66c152.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No74c151.68$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4215131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde5a…70a1backed Yes47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9775…8746backed Yes64c132.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4bb…a25bbacked Yes50c132$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b2…850fbacked Yes44c130.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1e…4a0ebacked No50c129$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0501…7b6ebacked Yes50c129$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61eb…c6aabacked Yes50c129$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b1…a783backed Yes50c129$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17e…7ff4backed No50c128$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd53c…a233backed Yes50c127$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c126.31$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4327429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x163e…916ebacked No50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…bb53backed No50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2430…308fbacked No50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6b…96c9backed Yes41c122.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1015…5c48backed No50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee4…6cc3backed No50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…18d7backed No50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc0…2dfbbacked No50c121$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ade…18dfbacked No50c121$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8739…faf0backed Yes50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes47c120$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes63c117.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.986361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b2…0da6backed Yes50c117$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f6…4832backed Yes50c117$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96a…31fcbacked Yes50c117$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…2de8backed Yes50c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x140c…74e4backed Yes50c114$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e4…8723backed No50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5e…6ba4backed Yes50c112$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.