TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe42f…8c01backed Yes62c5,090$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,143.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No43c4,961$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.5981240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No63c2,278$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.581,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes45c2,250$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.1160%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes27c1,894$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No70c1,861$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.311,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes38c1,627$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.653716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No44c1,520$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8502100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa181…43cfbacked Yes27c1,349$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes14c1,299$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.94168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No58c1,228$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.2413941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No72c1,219$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.5235151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3e…d3ddbacked Yes49c1,015$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked Yes38c740.1$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No55c700.5$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.55850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed No74c619.71$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2617038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1926864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes49c526.66$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes38c520.18$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.561414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c517.17$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0817049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No71c488.89$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.287071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes49c466.25$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.894148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No56c434.3$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.094245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c425.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.851,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe744…f96ebacked Yes44c416.71$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes32c399.8$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No68c333.26$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No37c326.49$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5918853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No78c322$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8456548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c319.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.02924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes31c283.62$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.552030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No76c278.96$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6560229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes11c257.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No74c246.56$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.034465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2c…eb18backed Yes59c237.03$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…37edbacked No66c219.79$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+104.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1661…ca95backed Yes71c212$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+30.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf82e…ad17backed Yes35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes41c194.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.585937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes26c194.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4515131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No65c173.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4222129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes31c172.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.087726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes32c164.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.547844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c164.12$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7519934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff52…c796backed Yes37c158.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.712941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…9074backed Yes48c157.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No66c145.1$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.339324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes36c137.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.145628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c79…8fffbacked Yes57c135.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7545…eb85backed Yes61c133.1$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c132.28$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.186338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No65c125.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4913147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac9…dbbabacked No80c124.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.97475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes34c110.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.916248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74f9…ad71backed Yes58c102.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0179…5ff2backed No77c101.67$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.823961.5%24 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed Yes46c100.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.051968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed No78c96.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.853938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b2…850fbacked Yes48c95.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7312…b3e0backed No75c93.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…558fbacked No54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No69c91.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0110442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bce…7dbebacked Yes47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No59c84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.511764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…0811backed Yes46c81.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc2…f0b4backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c73.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x620d…f8dbbacked No71c70.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69eb…66a2backed Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2679…bb54backed No45c61.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9775…8746backed Yes48c61.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2127338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c59.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0615947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74eb…c78abacked No68c57.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4100…253ebacked Yes38c52.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes34c52.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.958239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed No56c50.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.071080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+167.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163920.5%8 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fc3…6f24backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb95…0d2fbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedfd…5728backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc4a…4bb3backed No65c45.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19f…f313backed Yes45c44.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes28c44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.327522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff79…3641backed Yes46c43.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No72c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.627068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbca0…7db3backed No62c40.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.161250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5be…116cbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf924…435bbacked Yes29c39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No65c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.361450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8d…fe4ebacked No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4a…3a60backed No59c31.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a0…7090backed No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.