TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked No28c10,123$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,283.4781240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes70c10,066$7,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,033.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No20c9,779$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,827.351,78349%874 W · 909 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes43c5,934$2,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,578.747726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51b8…cf16backed No44c4,702$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,612.371020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes29c4,616$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.623737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2381…2b8fbacked No5c4,190$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+947.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed82…0954backed Yes75c4,110$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed No6c2,808$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,640.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,573.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked No66c2,718$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.42060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0251513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No22c2,357$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.713716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed Yes60c2,073$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.73825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No30c2,043$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.571,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes72c1,696$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.936361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No64c1,343$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.835850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No36c1,282$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.2460229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No32c1,240$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1661…ca95backed No19c1,212$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+30.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes1c1,183$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.191827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No16c1,175$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.7348234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b9…0371backed Yes65c1,127$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes9c1,122$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4631036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c1,054$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.074168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes66c1,007$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.8610442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No19c1,000$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8102540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No30c898.22$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.9418853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x81ea…c3c5backed No21c897.75$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.76837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No10c895.46$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.544245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No13c860.19$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.841050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+97.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes74c847.86$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.821631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No19c790$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.4535151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c769.99$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.726237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes12c761.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.665937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Yes4c700$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f4…e758backed No79c699.98$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No51c695.6$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No7c680.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.1119934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked Yes60c649.53$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No53c648.63$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked No8c648.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.369913.1%13 W · 86 L-11.3wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe19…b213backed Yes67c566.33$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c553.24$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.051,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed No34c552.94$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+128.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc9…ed89backed Yes75c552.61$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c520.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.25924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10c6…19b6backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3651435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed No43c468.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.543915.4%6 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes69c444.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes63c423.05$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.1615131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes65c378.3$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.236643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff52…c796backed Yes78c354.09$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.572941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes7c353.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.185628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a4b…5e66backed Yes59c352.75$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.550%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed No11c330$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No24c321.83$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0315947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No31c321.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3a…287bbacked Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed Yes20c288.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc936…ec95backed No8c278.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+545.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes74c272.85$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.711414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c266.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed No34c259.48$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2117038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c258.63$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.9916418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed No47c257.34$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.981030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No6c256.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.168239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes74c250.77$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.73920.5%8 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes65c231.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bfc…26aebacked Yes17c227.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No5c227.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.788536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c224.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0217049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No28c224.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.193327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No34c222$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5256548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990f…c8a6backed No42c212.17$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da8…8d72backed No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…1ac1backed Yes75c198.51$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.131136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed No34c187.25$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.961963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa548…1fd5backed No34c182.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.352100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+136.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed No10c181.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.321080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+167.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8538…ee29backed No29c174$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+153.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b45…f70fbacked No53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes68c150$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10212360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb08…49acbacked Yes47c147$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes71c145.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e8…38b0backed Yes21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c139.88$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes65c134.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No54c132.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2851927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c132$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4822129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No24c129$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.046141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No36c128.73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.399324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No26c128.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.161136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3470…f3cfbacked No41c128.23$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes67c126.16$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.082133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed No38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69eb…66a2backed No18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.