Us Midterms · resolved market
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79969a5268d2c676b41fe0f13b315885caf40891473b047312a6e32a84e079cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Up | 37c | 8,009$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,067.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Down | 54c | 4,434$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.36 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Up | 50c | 2,421$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Down | 60c | 1,994$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 50c | 1,650$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.94 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Down | 64c | 1,348$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Down | 62c | 1,189$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Down | 51c | 1,178$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…90c3backed Up | 31c | 1,150$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Down | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Down | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Up | 29c | 1,016$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Up | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked Up | 63c | 991$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked Up | 36c | 911.86$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Down | 68c | 800$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked Down | 37c | 778$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…488ebacked Down | 71c | 750$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…8a9dbacked Down | 77c | 679.24$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Up | 48c | 545.45$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Down | 66c | 518.77$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…34d6backed Down | 74c | 503.85$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Up | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Up | 48c | 363.46$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Down | 29c | 317.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Up | 49c | 310.42$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…a6c2backed Down | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Down | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 48c | 264.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa079…6280backed Up | 46c | 210$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…cffdbacked Up | 44c | 207$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…a944backed Up | 49c | 203.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Up | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…e64abacked Down | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 48c | 199.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Up | 58c | 196.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Down | 60c | 194.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Down | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Up | 35c | 179.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…f131backed Up | 50c | 161.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…048abacked Down | 78c | 150.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Up | 43c | 128.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…5390backed Down | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Up | 48c | 117.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Down | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Up | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…033fbacked Down | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…ab2bbacked Down | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Up | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Up | 57c | 94.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Down | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…a0ffbacked Down | 40c | 78.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…0aa5backed Up | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Down | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Down | 65c | 74.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Up | 49c | 71.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c6c1backed Down | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…d11ebacked Up | 55c | 65.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked Up | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…1897backed Down | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Up | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Up | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…1e39backed Down | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked Down | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed Up | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked Up | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…8249backed Down | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…371ebacked Down | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…9bd7backed Up | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Up | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea24…51d0backed Down | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…599dbacked Down | 61c | 33.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Down | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85d…32d4backed Down | 51c | 27.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 49c | 27.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Up | 51c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Up | 50c | 24.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…5134backed Up | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…0ed7backed Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Down | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Down | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.