Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cac9abfb3abacc11302bec8ef6fe48dc4c9e5be046110305c6d6e62f4e47e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd058…c532backed No | 58c | 33,011$19,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,864.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…d07abacked Yes | 42c | 33,011$13,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,864.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 12c | 1,788$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 74c | 1,727$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 73c | 1,123$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 26c | 934$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 26c | 793$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 24c | 611.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 31c | 232$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 212.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 27c | 97.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 69c | 74.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 26c | 41.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 32c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 50c | 33.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?this page
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 70 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 75 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 90 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.