Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x775ece2c544bc3c3abfbc0c72730cac1ac1319bae43a5389d4ab8c98866de53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ca2…5818backed Yes | 42c | 32,997$13,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,858.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…ae73backed No | 58c | 32,997$19,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,858.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 607$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 19c | 520$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 14c | 280$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…afb0backed Yes | 26c | 114.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…770fbacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…1898backed Yes | 23c | 69.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 68c | 41.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 36c | 37.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?this page
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 70 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 75 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 90 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.