Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed87a143cacfebe3bf5ae5b5a52c4e023806ede010c4236ee485c43f0048b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x491c…8c7ebacked No | 4c | 5,216$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 19c | 571$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 57c | 570.52$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 19c | 551$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 39c | 249$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed No | 69c | 123$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 68c | 98.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…e7a0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed No | 76c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?this page
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 70 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 75 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?No won
- Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 90 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.