Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd72aff479d3a4ac427aea04d2eafcfabaccdf649002e95dea448cd7a44354b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,994$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,110$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 11c | 921$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 11c | 773$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 9c | 762.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 55c | 462.83$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 14c | 385$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cb…7a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 12c | 380$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 16c | 374.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368e…9497backed Yes | 3c | 359.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…20c1backed Yes | 70c | 358.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 348.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 11c | 279$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 7c | 275.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 80c | 255$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes | 20c | 255$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 12c | 252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 12c | 197$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in February 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in February 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.