Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7994780252cb73eefa6e0f57803388dc8865e6dc92af42648529a0c5481d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 5c | 789.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 14c | 629$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 14c | 618$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 11c | 542$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 13c | 483$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 11c | 455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 5c | 451.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368e…9497backed Yes | 3c | 369.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 11c | 327$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 7c | 311.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…5e38backed Yes | 8c | 284.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed Yes | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 14c | 217$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 11c | 194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…f448backed Yes | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 80c | 109.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…4eb3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…e4bbbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in February 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in February 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.