NFL · resolved market
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed1d42b862e5c65622606aac8c6a235a90844f54e8f407652f45ba68525906c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 2c | 38,057$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…f93dbacked Yes | 2c | 28,709$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 17,579$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.82 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 16,713$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,518$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 6,815$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…3ff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,618$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 6,084$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…5070backed Yes | 1c | 5,892$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,636$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 3c | 4,999$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…6ec0backed Yes | 2c | 4,975$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…d9eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,679$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5d…d1b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,996$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 2,810$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…5407backed Yes | 2c | 2,730$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 3c | 2,726$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Yes | 3c | 2,725$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,670$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…7b01backed Yes | 1c | 2,440$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…bc4bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 3c | 1,755$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…9c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,733$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,651$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f1…e73cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,569$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,542$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f1…860fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…31c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,493$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…dea7backed Yes | 1c | 1,424$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…b4bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,424$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 1c | 1,279$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…9c06backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ce…ac8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…ced4backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…8648backed Yes | 3c | 1,033$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…8f43backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…969bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…92a6backed Yes | 1c | 937.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 2c | 935.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a64…6d4cbacked Yes | 2c | 893.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 880.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 878.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 2c | 780.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…9468backed Yes | 3c | 695.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…c3b8backed Yes | 2c | 675.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86e…ddcebacked Yes | 2c | 598.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 580.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…3297backed Yes | 2c | 508.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe492…8309backed Yes | 3c | 504.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…c780backed Yes | 2c | 492.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc58…1647backed Yes | 8c | 487.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…f02dbacked Yes | 3c | 439.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…ad73backed Yes | 2c | 435.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 5c | 401.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc162…40bbbacked Yes | 5c | 374.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…0710backed Yes | 6c | 341.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 6c | 341.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Yes | 5c | 224.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…1b7dbacked Yes | 5c | 215.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 10c | 198.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 9c | 109.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…e5b4backed Yes | 10c | 101.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?this page
- Will Barron Trump attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Gavin Newsom attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Justin Bieber attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will LeBron James attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Livvy Dunne attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Nicki Minaj attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Sam Altman attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LX?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend Super Bowl LX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.